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Tad Donaghe’s technology predictions for 2013

Yes, it’s prediction time again.

Tad Donaghe, who has been quoted in this blog previously (most recently here), has published ten technology predictions for 2013. The prediction cover a variety of topics, and I’m only going to share two of them.

2. LED Lighting – 2013 will be the Year of the LED light bulb. By the end of the year, good 75W replacement LED bulbs will be selling for less than $10/bulb. Throughout the year, consumers and industry will continue adopting LED bulbs in great numbers. By the end of the year, we’ll see a few news stories about how this adoption is leading to significantly less drain on the national power grid.

I really haven’t followed LED lighting, but I wonder if even $10 is too high a price point for mass adoption. Faced with a choice between a low-cost cheap item and a high-cost outstanding item, consumers often go for cheap. I suspect the growth will be minimal.

9. Books: Fewer people will read books printed on paper next year – we may reach parity with eBooks – 50% of people reading eBook in 2013. Public school districts in the US will very slowly continue to adopt digital texts, though the numbers won’t be significant for another 10 years or more.

The part of this post that intrigues me is the last part regarding the public school districts (and, by extension, private schools and colleges/universities). Public school districts often seem to be resistant to change, but at the same time public school districts are strapped for money. What if ebooks offer demonstrated cost savings to a public school district (or to another educational entity)? Policies toward ebooks won’t automatically change overnight, but there’s a chance that Tad may be pessimistic on this prediction. Maybe we’ll see significant change in five years rather than ten.

Do you want to see Donaghe’s predictions about 3D printing, self-driving cars, health care, and other topics? Read his post.

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